Vital Interests: Richard, thanks very much for participating in the Vital Interests forum. Recently UNHCR issued their annual Global Trends Report - this year it was grim because the number of displaced people and refugees substantially increased. Can you give us an overview of this disturbing trend?

Richard Towle: Overall the figures portray a very startling and disturbing picture of displacement around the world today. In the last 10 years, the number of globally displaced people has almost doubled from around 40 million to 80 million today. The world is experiencing all forms of complex geopolitical and security situations many of which involve, at their heart, conflict and violence and discrimination and exclusion. These conspire to produce a volatile cocktail of elements that lead to forced displacement on a scale we have not seen before.

VI: UNHCR deals with a multitude of people who fall into different categories under the term “refugee” - there are asylum seekers, internally displaced people, stateless people, and returnees. What is it that makes most people have to flee their homes and then fall into one of these categories?

Richard Towle:, I think at the heart of almost all of these forms of displacement lies inequality and injustice. The drivers of conflict today are generally rooted in poor governance, impunity, neglect and inequality of socioeconomic opportunity. In many parts of the world we see competition or unfair distribution of national resources,  marginalization of social, ethnic or religious groups and other forms of exclusion based on discrimination. At the core of most displacement lies alienation of people from the privileges and opportunities of those who hold the levers of power. Refugees are a particular protected category of people who have been able to cross an international border to claim protection in another sovereign state by reason of their fear of  persecution, or harm from serious human rights abuses. By contrast, internally displaced people (IDPs) remain within the sovereign state of their country of origin even though the root causes may often be the same as for refugees. At a ‘human’ level, their need for protection and hopes for a peaceful solution to their plight must also be addressed in similar ways.

VI: Let's look at the nearly 80 million people who are displaced around the world. They include Palestinians who have been living in “refugee settlements” in the West Bank, in Jordan and in Lebanon since the creation of Israel. The Syrian war has now been going on for ten years resulting in millions fleeing their homes. Long term conflicts in Africa have forced tens of thousands into refugee camps. How many people have been displaced for longer than 10 years?

Richard Towle: The international refugee regime and system of agreements and protocols assumes that refugee displacement and the need for international protection is not permanent. Rather, it was conceived as a temporary or transitional measure, until conditions improve in a refugee’s own country and it is safe to go home, or that person has been able to find a safe and permanent basis somewhere else, either the country of asylum or resettlement to a third country.

Yet the reality today is that many of the world's refugees are living for protracted periods, in limbo, without any form of durable solution on the horizon and often with few rights or adequate protection. The uncertainty of “future’ is debilitating and takes a heavy toll on the physical and mental health of refugee communities. 

Conflicts that give rise to displacement are becoming more difficult to resolve, fewer refugees are able to go home and, at the same time, the opportunity for resettlement has contracted sharply over the last two years – a trend that has been exacerbated by the global Covid19 pandemic as states further limit access to their territories for health reasons. 

In consequence, close to 85% of the world's refugees today are living in the developing world without the prospect of any meaningful solution. The burden of their care and protection – for years and even decades - falls principally on states that are already challenged in looking after their own populations.  Perhaps the most striking figure in UNHCR’s recent report is that only four million refugees have been able to go home over the last 10 years. 

VI: That is a very disturbing figure, only four out of 80 million in the past ten years have been able to return to their home country. These refugees, they're living in many countries without any kind of official status - they are not classified as asylum seekers, they don't have work permits, and are living hand-to-mouth without sufficient support from their host countries. Is this large number - nearly 1% of the world’s population - dependent for their wellbeing on international agencies like UNHCR? 

Richard Towle: Many of them are on the peripheries of societies in which they live. For example, many refugees in Africa are in fragile and insecure border areas which suffer from poverty and long term socio-economic neglect. These regions are far from the centres of power in capitals and provide enormous logistic and security challenges for agencies, such as UNHCR, which are trying to protect them.  In other regions, refugees find themselves in urban areas but without the benefit of legal rights to access health, education, adequate accommodation or lawful employment sectors of work.  Without lawful documentation, refugees are often confined to the exploitative grey market economy, poor health care and squalid living conditions.

VI: Let's talk about the impact of the COVID pandemic. Because of this virus, countries around the world have shut their borders. There is no movement, so prospects for refugees to leave their dire situations for a third country with the prospect of a better life have been shut down. Are UNHCR and other NGOs trying to help people that are trapped in refugee and IDP camps in Greece, in Jordan, in Syria, in Sudan?  How many people who are actually in camps need to be sustained on a day-to-day basis?

Richard Towle: Covid19 has had a dramatic and negative impact on refugees and forcibly displaced populations in three main areas: 

First, is the immediate impact of the health crisis itself. Refugees, forced-displaced and migrants are often living in crowded congested camps or urban settings, with lower levels of quality healthcare. To exercise social distancing in an already compromised physical environment is extremely difficult for many. This increases their vulnerability to contracting and spreading the virus. Generally, UNHCR has been pleased to see that most national authorities recognize the need to include refugees into their national health response plans. It is clear that if marginalized and sometimes invisible populations are excluded from health coverage, this will undermine efforts to protect the host community. The case for inclusion – irrespective of legal status – is compelling. 

Second, Covid19 has led to a dramatic contraction of asylum space in all parts of the world. Although states have the clear responsibility to protect their own communities, we have seen severe limits and restrictions being placed at many borders and frontiers. Many asylum seekers have been unable to cross borders and sometimes draconian constraints have been placed on freedom of movement, including administrative detention. UNHCR is concerned that some restrictive measures are not commensurate with the threat posed by Covid19 which, in some instances, is being used as a subterfuge to introduce more restrictive asylum procedures that may outlive the pandemic itself.

Third, the impact of COVID-19 on economies around the world is having an even more  dramatic effect on people at the lower end of the socio-economic and employment pyramid. Many refugees employed in the unregulated grey market economy, without the security of work permits, are already excluded and exploited. Covid19 has devastated their work prospects. For many, their sole source of family income has dried up, as have the remittances to dependent families at home. For example, for Syrian refugees the cost of 10 years conflict, hyperinflation and now collapsing work opportunities in neighbouring countries, has compounded the misery of displacement. UNHCR is deeply concerned about the longer term implications of the loss of livelihoods and income for refugees and displaced people. 

At the same time, the smuggling routes are still working. People are still putting their lives and resources into the hands of unscrupulous smugglers and the odious practices of traffickers. Governments may be closing their borders and territories but smuggling movements are thriving in some regions -  exploiting the reduced security patrols and control mechanisms. There is a paradox that as governments tighten their formal immigration and asylum systems, criminal networks are able to exploit other areas of territory that security forces cannot control during Covid. The situation in the Sahel region of West Africa reveals a rise in extremism and armed militia and dramatic deterioration of protection for displaced people throughout that region.

VI: When UNHCR works with this large group of people who are defined as refugees, does this include those designated as “economic migrants?” People who are coming from countries with limited opportunities for any kind of economic advancements and seeking better lives in the developed nations?

Richard Towle: UNHCR is not responsible for the protection of people moving for migratory reasons such as employment, economic or social purposes. Its mandate is confined to refugees who have been forcibly displaced by reason of persecution, serious human rights violations or conflict. However, the reality of modern migration in a globalized world is that refugees frequently move along the same migratory routes and use the same means as migrants. The root causes of forced displacement are different from migrants. Refugees have particular needs (and rights) to protection, but they often form part of what we call ‘mixed flows’. That's why we need to have a regulatory system which is able to identify those with protection needs from those who migrate for other reasons. The identification of refugee status – and its concomitant principle of non-refoulement – is the cornerstone of the international refugee protection system. 

VI: UNHCR is present in Asia, in Africa, in the Middle East, and now with the crisis in Venezuela and Central America, is working in Latin America. Does UNHCR work with regional groups like the Organization of American States or the African Union on refugee issues?

Richard Towle: The modern reality is that no entity can hope to deal with the complexities of forced displacement issues on its own. To achieve a more multidimensional and integrated approach to refugees, the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) has, at its foundations, the objective of strengthening partnerships and participation across a wide range of actors – governments, UN agencies, civil society and NGOs, the private sector and international financial institutions. We were very heartened at the first Global Refugee Forum in Geneva in December last year when more than 1,300 pledges were made by diverse actors to collaborate in the cause of refugee protection around the world. 

We also need to work beyond the sphere of humanitarian action. Solutions for refugee displacement require peace agreements, political stability and inclusive economic development in refugees’ countries of origin. For this reason, UNHCR and its partners are engaged in many of the UN Secretary General’s initiatives to support the UN’s development agenda, principally to ensure refugees are integrated – and ‘not left behind’ – by states in their pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals Agenda 2030. The so-called ‘humanitarian-development’ nexus requires practical investment in  programmes that protect and absorb displaced people into the mainstream of the societies where they live.

In terms of regional cooperation, UNHCR has developed strong ties with a number of regional bodies, both political and economic. In Africa, UNHCR enjoys good collaboration with the African Union and, increasingly, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). In Latin America, closer cooperation is being forged with regional bodies such as the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to make sure humanitarian considerations are leveraged in the economic, social and political spheres.  There are economic commissions in all the four or five major regions of the world today. UNHCR is also stepping up its engagement with international financial institutions and the private sector. For instance, we have a very positive relationship with the World Bank where instruments such as the IDA18 and IDA-19 sub-window for refugee protection have committed significant funds to refugees and host states. At the Global Forum in December, the Bank committed a further $2.2 billion replenishment for 2020-2023. These investments provide much-needed opportunities to break the cycle of displacement and violence.

VI: In order to address these challenges and come to some international consensus, the UN has recently adopted two compacts- the UN Global Compact on Migration and the UN Global Compact on Refugees, both of which were ratified at the end of 2018. Can you go into the intent of the Global Compact on Refugees? I know that they are not binding treaties, but an effort to create best practices and at least open up the discussion on available solutions to the global challenge of refugees.

Richard Towle: The two compacts are really complementary to each other. The Refugee Compact, as you say, is a consensual non-prescriptive and non-binding instrument of collaboration. At the heart of it, it is an acknowledgment that to be successful in responding to the complexities of refugee displacement and forced displacement today, there has to be a broader base of collaboration, not only between governments and international organizations, but also with affected communities at a national, sub-national and local level. It's a “call to arms” for collaboration and partnership.

At the end of last year in Geneva, UNHCR convened the first Global Refugee Forum (GRF) where states, NGOs, and civil society groups gathered to reflect on the goals of the Compact. There were some 1300 pledges and commitments of various forms made by corporate entities, banks, governments, NGOs, UN agencies and others, as to how they would advance their partnership in the cause of refugee protection. Those were very promising because, if you look at the range of pledges, they cover the whole gamut of support and resources needed to provide a more integrated, supportive and globalized approach to refugees and their protection.

Covid19 has certainly reinforced the compelling argument for multilateralism and the shortcomings of unilateralism. 

VI:  People used to look to the United States to lead when it comes to global cooperation and support for international institutions, but the Trump administration is decidedly against refugees coming into the United States.  Where can the world look to for this leadership on refugee and migrant issues? Is it going to come from cooperation between international organizations and the private sector, as you mentioned? Will wealthy charities like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the WellcomeTrust step up and fill this gap in world leadership to encourage global cooperation? 

Richard Towle: The global system for refugee protection is based on fundamental principles of human rights to protect and assist people who, through no fault of their own, find themselves at risk of persecution or serious harm in their own countries. These principles are, in turn, underpinned by moral, ethical and spiritual values that are intrinsic to all societies. At a time when these values and rights are very much under threat, we need strong leadership at every level in the community – particularly from leaders of states. 

At UNHCR’s Standing Committee meeting in Geneva in June, we heard many reassuring voices of support for refugees and our work from Governments and civil society alike. Also, the High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, presented his annual summation of the state of the world's refugees at the Security Council two weeks ago and found unanimity among the Security Council members that the work of UNHCR must be supported through the leadership of the Council – despite the divisions that have beset the Council on many important issues of peace and security today.

There are also many positive examples of leadership from diverse groups such as faith-based organisations, corporate leaders, philanthropists and foundations, and others. Of course, leadership must also be rooted in the community itself, among civic and religious leaders, mayoralties, governorships of states, and at the grass roots levels of society. Leadership also starts with the kinds of conversations that people have on social media or around the dinner table at home in discussing the moral and ethical underpinnings to refugee protection. 

VI: Would resolving armed and political conflicts in Syria, in Sudan, in Venezuela, in Myanmar go a long way to alleviating the numbers of refugees we now see?

Richard Towle: That's right. Two-thirds of the world's refugees today come from five countries: Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, South Sudan, and Myanmar. In each of these complex geopolitical and security situations, political solutions have proven elusive – and without a peaceful and sustainable political solution, refugees and other displaced people cannot go home. We know what needs to be done in countries like Myanmar to encourage the return of nearly a million Rohingya refugees but implementing those concrete steps has been challenging. In Syria, the long military contest is drawing to an end but the damage to the infrastructure is immense and refugee communities do not yet have confidence their lives will be safe and secure if they return.  There are glimmers of hope for peace in South Sudan as peace talks progress but in the meantime huge displacement persists for refugees in Sudan and Uganda and, of course, within South Sudan itself. In neighbouring Sudan, the new Government has taken positive steps, supported by the UN, for the return of refugees and IDPs. So there are some prospects for hope amid the gloomy news of global displacement generally.

VI: You say that the Security Council applauds the efforts of UNHCR and that its work needs to continue and be supported. Most of that support has to be in terms of funding. There are pledge conferences called by the Secretary General to get pledges of support for some of these worst affected conflict zones. Yemen is in great need, Mosul in Iraq is still completely devastated after being “liberated” from ISIS, and when the conflict ends in Syria a vast part of the country will need to be rebuilt. How do the necessary funds get allocated and begin to flow?

Richard Towle:  Overall, states have been very supportive of UNHCR’s funding appeals for our humanitarian work. And in the context of COVID, our appeal for USD227million has reached a remarkable level of 89% funding. The United States is a very important supporter of UNHCR’s work – through funding and as an active member of our Executive Committee – and contributes over 40% of UNHCR's voluntary contributions globally. 

But what's changed is that the scale of need has dramatically increased. The levels of funding we're getting today, in dollar terms, is far higher than what we were asking for 10 years ago. The needs have risen exponentially, as our global statistics graphically illustrate. 

In some operations there are very significant shortfalls in funding. In others, it's not only a question of funding deficits, it's also the lack of a secure environment where programmes can be carried out. In the Sahel today, there are many funding initiatives to address security, development and humanitarian needs but the pervasive lack of security makes access and implementation of programmes very challenging. 

Beyond humanitarian action, if we are to find sustainable solutions for displaced people to return home, we need not only conditions of peace and security but also, as you suggest, a massive investment in infrastructure to get shattered economies and societies back on their feet. This requires funding well beyond the humanitarian areas of UNHCR’s work. A challenge for Syria will be the political conditionality of any reconstruction funding in any post-conflict arrangements.  The impact of Covid will, no doubt, make these even more challenging.   

That's why in the UN, the convergence of peace and security initiatives, peacebuilding initiatives, and development and humanitarian work is very important. We need to get a better integrated suite of response measures that deal with the root causes related to governance and equality, but also are able to deal with the more pressing issues around humanitarian support. It's not an either or. It's a matter of getting the combination of measures and the funding for those measures put in the right place at the right time.

VI: The challenges are huge, in terms of trying to provide mechanisms by which people can return to their homes, when many of their homes have been in conflict countries and cities and infrastructure have been destroyed. Is rebuilding part of UNHCR’s purview? For example, there was a recent article about Mosul, how pledged funds were going unspent while the city remains mostly uninhabitable with its citizens displaced and living in camps around Iraq. What happens in these conflict zones when the conflict in fact does end? Who is responsible for rebuilding, how are funds allocated and safeguarded from corruption?

Richard Towle: Refugees and displaced people are the best judge of when it's safe for them to go back. They tend to look for assurances of peace, safety and dignity. They also need evidence that some semblance of normality will return to their lives through access to work, education, accommodation and health care for their families. 

As part of its humanitarian work, UNHCR works with Governments in hosting and countries of return to support the basic needs for returnees and communities. For example, in the return of refugees in former Yugoslavia, UNHCR was involved in housing reconstruction for returnees and integration programmes around basic services. However, the much larger-scale work of reconstruction and rebuilding shattered infrastructure lies with Governments and their funders. In all these efforts, the risk of corruption and misappropriation of relief, reconstruction and development funding has to be vigilantly monitored. 

As you say, for war-torn countries like Syria, Yemen or Afghanistan the costs of reconstruction and securing sustainable development are massive. We are a humanitarian aid agency that looks after the more immediate needs of refugees. We're not a developmental or reconstruction or infrastructural agency, but our efforts will come to nothing if they're not supported and underpinned by these broader systemic reinvestments.

If these conditions are in place, and displaced populations have confidence that they're going to provide sustainable and stable futures for their families, then they'll “vote with their feet” and go back. If those things are not addressed in a systemic way, people will fear a recurrence of violence and a secondary displacement. For example, many refugee families in South Sudan have experienced multiple displacements because the fundamentals of peace and security were not sustained. Tragically, many refugees have seen one, two, if not three cycles of forced displacement in their own lifetimes  -sometimes intergenerationally.

VI: Their displacement moves them from place to place.

Richard Towle: Or they go home and they get displaced a second time because the root causes of displacement are not fully addressed the first time.

VI: Was that the situation in Afghanistan? When the Taliban were ousted and a new government took over Afghanistan, people went back hoping to resume their lives, but then the security situation was never really established, and they fled again?

Richard Towle: The security situation has always been fragile in places beyond Kabul, and investments in infrastructure and confidence-building measures amongst tribal groups and villages, far from Kabul, have always been a challenge. There is a risk that any gains will be wound back if the peace and political processes in the country are not fully inclusive and cannot be sustained. The challenges of development and reconstruction in the absence of a durable and all inclusive political settlement are enormous.

VI: With regards to resettlement in third countries- after significant numbers of refugees were able to make their way up into Europe several years ago, Europe closed its borders and made deals with countries like Greece and Turkey to pay to basically warehouse refugees in camps. Are the EU or individual governments likely to allow in more people or have those conversations ended?

Richard Towle: The phenomenon of people moving out of Syria through Turkey and then into Europe was not an example of a managed resettlement program. These were spontaneous movements of people seeking asylum. Many sought access to the refugee status determination procedures established in the countries along that route, but their hoped for destination was Germany. The consequence of many European states tightening their borders and asylum procedures placed a heavy burden on countries like Greece that served as a gateway into Europe and the regulated asylum systems of the EU.  

UNHCR has long maintained that properly managed (national and regional) asylum systems can differentiate between refugees needing protection and those migrating for other reasons. The closure of borders only pushes the burden of desperate asylum seekers onto other countries. 

One way of supporting countries that host refugees – usually those contiguous to the country of origin- has been through managed resettlement programmes which allow refugees to move to a third country and start new lives elsewhere. 

The United States, for example, has a remarkably generous history of accepting “resettled’ refugees from around the world, as do Australia, Canada and New Zealand. During the Indochinese crises of the 1970s-90’s the US resettled millions of Cambodian and Vietnamese refugees from Southeast Asia, providing support for countries in that region and a stable future for millions of displaced refugees. 

However today, the number of resettlement places available globally has reduced dramatically. The US resettlement quota is heavily reduced and resettlement is not really a feasible option for the vast preponderance of refugees around the world. The reality for most refugees is to remain for protracted periods in fragile and disempowered places of asylum with little prospect of returning home or moving elsewhere. This is the modern day dilemma that UNHCR seeks to address through the Global Compact on Refugees. 

VI: Another tragic reality, of those 80 million displaced people,  it's estimated that up to 34 million are children, and that tens of thousands of these children are unaccompanied by a parent or guardian. We are talking about a whole generation of children that are in this limbo, with no going back, no going forward. What hope is possible for these children?

Richard Towle: This is one of the invisible tragedies of refugee displacement today:  the hopes and aspirations of a future generation is being denied to young people. Only 4% of the world's refugees today are over 60 years old, so protracted displacement has already impacted on millions of young people who have known nothing other than a life of displacement and insecurity. 

The burden of displacement can be eased in some ways through access to education, so that time spent in a refugee camp, or waiting in limbo for a more durable outcome, is not entirely lost. That's why education is incredibly important for children of all ages in this period of uncertainty and instability. Education holds the key to a meaningful future and also provides a ‘safe space’ where children have some semblance of normal life and not fall prey to exploitation or harm. This is particularly important for female children who, if not for schooling, could be at risk. UNHCR, working with its partners, has some extremely innovative programmes to support children of displaced families through primary and even secondary and tertiary education. 

However, one of the negative consequences of COVID has been the suspension of education opportunities globally. This has particularly impacted refugee children where widespread closures of schools has effectively curtailed their education, including in places such as the Sahel, where education serves an important protection function.

VI: If the majority of displaced people in the world today are the result of conflict, what projections is UNHCR making for the prospect of climate change refugees? What do you think will happen in the next 10 to 20 years as climate change forces people to leave their homes? 

Richard Towle: In UNHCR we don't use the term “climate refugees” because for us the word ‘refugee’ is a specific term that carries particular legal responsibilities for states.  It is confined to people who've fled across an international boundary because of persecution, conflict or serious human rights violations. In rare circumstances, climate change might be one of the contributing elements leading to a grant of refugee status but this is still an evolving area of international law and jurisprudence. 

But we do know from science, that climate change and environmental degradation can be one of the contributing drivers or accelerators of human displacement. In the Sahel, Sudan, and Somalia, climate change - and an increasingly hostile physical environment - is one of the elements that can disrupt human settlement and habitat. In Sudan and the Sahel, climate change and desertification have led to changed migratory patterns for cattle herders and increased competition and tensions with pastoralists. Some tensions have been stoked by militias and Islamist groups and politicised by ethnic factions. In these volatile and fragile contexts, conflict and displacement can frequently occur. 

We have seen in the Security Council, increased debate on the links between climate change and international peace and security, particularly championed by Germany. As places become more inhospitable and hostile to human habitation, as crops start to fail, and as droughts, floods and locusts become more frequent events, then people might need to move to other places. If not managed appropriately, this will inevitably put them in conflict with other communities and could become issues of international peace and security. 

What is clear, however, is that climate change requires a multilateral response, based on science and strategic long term planning and resource allocation, not on three or four-year electoral cycles of governments. 

VI: Richard, we're coming to the end of our time. We like to end these discussions on a positive note. The numbers that we have talked about and the prospects for refugees are pretty dire. When you look to the future, the immediate future and forward five to 10 years, how does this refugee crisis get resolved? You mentioned the fact that there is support within the Security Council, that governments and civic/faith-based groups around the world recognize this is a major threat for all of the global community. Going forward, do you see that concern increasing and that solutions to this crisis will be high on the global agenda?

Richard Towle: I think there's a lot to be pessimistic about in the short to medium term. Political solutions to complex displacement remain elusive and displacement numbers are likely to remain high. But there are some ‘green shoots’ where protracted or difficult elements may be on the cusp of improvements for refugees. The situations in Somalia and Sudan, which have been volatile and uncertain for refugees for decades, are showing positive signs of improvement. For example, the Sudanese Government led by PM Hamdok has embarked on a programme of inclusive reform and development. If it is able to navigate through the economic headwinds  it  faces – with support from the international community – the solutions for refugees and IDPs appear positive. The situation for refugees in Bangladesh, who fled from Myanmar, are solvable if the ingredients for safe and dignified return and integration into the community of origin, can be negotiated. 

More generally, UNHCR takes comfort in the fact that, despite the enormity of challenges ahead, there is widespread support from states for the Refugee Convention and the humanitarian principles that underpin the global protection system. At the Global Forum last year and, again, during our Standing Committee in June, there was strong support for the Global Compact on Refugees. Among civil society in many countries, there is a groundswell of generosity and support for refugees, notwithstanding the numbers and the many horrors that we see across the media.

There is also growing support from across a wider base of constituencies – from faith-based organizations, from the corporate world, and amongst younger generations in civil society.  This is encouraging and we need to further strengthen and broaden that base. The Global Compact is a good foundation to build that constituency of generosity, partnership and accountability.  

In a world where national interests are often narrowly defined and driven by unilateralism, we need to demonstrate that collaboration and multilateralism can address both the interests of states and the humanitarian imperatives for refugees. A convergence of those interests is both possible and necessary. 

Richard Towle is the Deputy Director of the UNHCR office in New York.